By Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
ISBN-10: 0387890130
ISBN-13: 9780387890135
"Tony Cox is one of the such a lot lively and inventive architects and clients of quantitative possibility research. This e-book is stuffed with fascinating equations, conceptual designs and conundrums that symbolize QRA and its purposes to hazard administration. trained through trenchant considering and perceptive writing, this can be a well timed source for the chance research community." Michael R. Greenberg, Professor and school Dean, Edward J. Bloustein college of making plans and Public coverage, Rutgers University
"Tony Cox's striking e-book applies either easy and state-of-the-art chance types to quite a few fields. It demonstrates inventive yet tractable how you can version real-world difficulties of serious functional value concerning organic, engineering, and social dangers. This booklet merits to develop into influential and extensively learn through these looking useful state of the art equipment for chance analysis." Vicki Bier, Professor, Engineering Physics and commercial Engineering & Director - heart for Human functionality and chance research, collage of Wisconsin-Madison
"Risk research is as previous because the first cave dweller mulling how one can continue to exist wintry weather or woolly mammoths. It is still crucial at the present time in our international of injuries, affliction, weather swap and terrorism. yet a few say that quantitative chance research is simply too complex or time-consuming, and that qualitative instinct is a greater method to make judgements. during this bold and meticulous publication, Tony Cox makes the case that quantitative chance research is really the antidote to uncertainty and complexity, better to different modes of considering, either sensible and potent. Cox increases the bar on an important debate." Jonathan B. Wiener, Duke college, and President, Society for possibility research (2008)
"This is a superb, approachable learn for any probability supervisor. uncomplicated yet devastating examples express how not to do possibility research. Insightful case stories observe quantitative chance overview to common, random threats, and to terrorist threats posed by way of an clever adversary. it is a well timed and much-needed source for skeptical shoppers of danger research suggestion and items, and if you have to increase upon present, dangerously simplistic, assistance on possibility evaluate and threat management." Gerald G. Brown, wonderful Professor, Operations learn division, Naval Postgraduate institution, Monterey, CA
"This publication presents a clean new point of view on quantitative danger evaluation, and may be of curiosity to a variety of practitioners. Drawing considerably on his personal paintings, Tony Cox demonstrates that QRA might be utilized even to difficult and intricate systems." Suresh Moolgavkar, vice chairman and critical Scientist, Exponent medical Consulting; Professor of Epidemiology, collage of Washington
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Additional resources for Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems
Sample text
Concerns about real or perceived risks are not uniformly distributed among demographic and political groups. , Johnson, 2002). , 1994), except in neighborhoods that truly are affected by multiple environmental stresses (Greenberg and Schneider, 1995). , 2001). , local) officials to do so, is more common among younger people who have spent relatively little time in their current neighborhoods (and, ironically, who do not engage in many personal public health practices) (Greenberg and Williams, 1999).
QRA encourages a particular view of the roles of agencies, experts, and the public. )] per year caused by a preventable exposure to a hazard. The agency tries to take actions to achieve these preferred consequences. To this end, it draws on experts with specialized knowledge and techniques to help identify actions that are likely to bring about preferred consequences. The experts use risk assessment models to predict the probabilities of different consequences if alternative actions are taken. They present this information to agencies and other stakeholders, who consider it via a structured and documented analytic-deliberative process and make a final choice of action.
Insisting on empirical evidence of the model’s predictive validity (such as a demonstration that it could successfully explain surveillance results in multiple countries) before accepting its conclusions as a guide to risk management policy might have helped to prevent the overreliance on results whose validity was contingent on that of a largely unproved and hypothetical model. S. ) Chapter 3 discusses further how to conduct QRAs and present results and uncertainties in ways that help to avoid unsound and misleading conclusions.