By P. Byrne
ISBN-10: 0203475518
ISBN-13: 9780203475515
ISBN-10: 0419200304
ISBN-13: 9780419200307
Presents undergraduates in surveying and estate pros with a transparent sensible rationalization of some of the administration ideas to enhance their estate improvement judgements.
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Additional info for Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-Making in Property
Example text
The models themselves can be constructed at various levels of detail and accuracy, and the model’s output can be evaluated and modified in a variety of ways. This is especially useful for those problems which have many levels of uncertainty and for those which have many possible outcomes.
The usual method of analysis is to ‘roll-back’ or ‘fold-back’ the tree working from right to left, reversing the process of tree construction. As each decision node is reached the action having the greatest profit or smallest loss is chosen, and rolled back to the next decision point. 4. A fourth stage, sometimes employed, is to apply sensitivity analysis to the tree, changing the variable values and probability distributions, and looking at the best courses of action which then result at each node.
To develop the method it would be necessary to assign much more carefully measured values of optimism and pessimism. In addition, intermediate outcomes other than the best and worst may be important, but are not considered adopting this criterion. It may also be that all actions have the same best and worst consequences so that a particular course of action cannot be chosen. When, or if, a situation is reached where the states of nature can be properly quantified, then the decision-maker has moved from a condition of uncertainty to one of ‘risk’.