By D. W. Pearce, J. Rose
ISBN-10: 0333182766
ISBN-13: 9780333182765
ISBN-10: 1349155772
ISBN-13: 9781349155774
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Additional resources for The Economics of Natural Resource Depletion
Example text
C) An expansion of output would mean increased producing capacity in most countries. This would be expensive and take time to bring into operation so that there is probably not much scope for competition in the short run. (d) As well as economic interests, there are strong political forces - Arab nationalism and anti-Israel feelings - which bind together some of the most important oil producers. About 50 per cent of world proved oil reserves are in Arab hands. For these reasons, it seems unrealistic to regard OPEC as a normal kind of cartel.
N. Conference on Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy in 197123 concluded that the estimated world total of uranium reserves recoverable at a price of up to $30 per lb (excluding the Communist countries) contains almost as much energy as the higher estimate we have already given for ultimate world coal reserves, if used in breeder reactors. The same study also pointed to the enormous volume of uranium which could be extracted from sea water, calculating that if only I per cent of the uranium in the sea were extracted and used in breeder reactors this would give a volume of energy equivalent to about nine times our higher estimate for ultimately recoverable coal.
In practice, production of fossil fuels would not rise to a maximum and then cease, but would decline for some years from its maximum point: therefore the peak offossil fuel output would occur before the middle of next century, given our assumptions about reserves and demand growth. Some doubts are expressed later about whether world energy consumption TABLE 2-4 Estimates of Ultimately Recoverable Reserves of Fossil Fuels Coal Oil· Natural gast 101 2 metric tons coal equivalent 4'3-7'6 0'4-0'5 0'4-0'6 1015 kcal 25,40 0-44,900 2400- 3000 2400- 3500 30,200-5 I ,400 t Including natural gas liquids.