By Bob Johansen
ISBN-10: 1576754405
ISBN-13: 9781576754405
Read or Download Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present PDF
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Extra resources for Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present
Example text
When I go to baseball games, I like to arrive right when the ballpark opens, about two hours before the first pitch. That way, we get to see batting practice, and we can relax and watch the scene unfold as the crowd arrives. We become part of a relaxed and expectant gathering that is gradually coming to life. We rarely encounter traffic or lines. Our experience at a ballgame is reflective and pastoral, in spite of the fact that—eventually—we are part of a large crowd at our San Francisco ballpark.
The Institute for the Future’s Ten-Year Forecast was begun in 1978, when Roy Amara was president of IFTF. The ten-year time horizon was an important choice. 1 To be most useful, a forecast should be far enough into the future to go beyond an organization’s normal planning horizon but not so far ahead that it becomes unbelievable, irrelevant, or too far out. Most of our forecasts focus ten years ahead, but our range for recent forecasts has been from three to fifty years. Our preference is for ten years.
4 Introduction Crest toothpaste, for example, was the first toothpaste to be approved by the American Dental Association. Before the ADA endorsement was granted, Procter & Gamble supported large public research efforts on the effects of fluoride, a key ingredient in Crest. Get there early also means being able to act before others have figured out what to do. Based on the positive results from the fluoride research, P&G came up with a novel plan for ADA endorsement of Crest. It doesn’t do any good to get there early if you don’t do anything.