By The World Bank
ISBN-10: 082137799X
ISBN-13: 9780821377994
ISBN-10: 0821378015
ISBN-13: 9780821378014
The eruption of the global monetary challenge has noticeably recast clients for the realm economic system. international financial customers 2009 analyzes the consequences of the challenge for low- and middle-income nations, together with an in-depth examine long term clients for international commodity markets and the rules of either commodity generating and eating international locations. constructing international locations face sharply better borrowing charges and decreased entry to capital, slicing into their potential to finance funding spending. The looming recession offers new hazards, coming because it does at the heels of the hot meals and gas predicament. Commodity markets, in the meantime, are at a crossroads. Following many years of low costs and vulnerable funding in offer capability, commodity costs first spiked and feature now plummeted based on the monetary main issue. within the longer run, commodities usually are not anticipated to be briefly offer. costs could be larger than they have been within the Nineteen Nineties yet a lot below within the contemporary earlier. those larger costs may still offer manufacturers with adequate incentive to find new offers, increase output from current assets, and advertise higher conservation and substitution with extra plentiful choices. even as, slower inhabitants progress will ease the speed at which commodity call for grows. guidelines to restrict carbon emissions and improve agricultural funding, besides the dissemination of effective strategies, also needs to give a contribution to this long term end result. This 12 months s worldwide financial customers additionally appears to be like at executive responses to the hot cost increase.
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Extra info for Global Economic Prospects 2009: Commodities at the Crossroads
Sample text
D. S. dollars. e. S. dollars, 2000 prices, and market exchange rates. f. GDP measured at 2000 PPP weights. 1 GDP growth Asian Dot-com crisis crisis Forecast Real GDP, percentage change 8 High-income countries 6 4 2 0 Ϫ2 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Developing countries, excluding China and India Developing countries Source: World Bank. in the recent past. Higher commodity prices have widened current account deficits of many oil-importing countries to worrisome levels (they exceed 10 percent of GDP in about onethird of developing countries), and after having increased substantially, the international reserves of oil-exporting developing countries are now declining as a share of their imports.
Although net foreign direct investment should be moderately more resistant to the downturn (as in past episodes), tighter credit may cause high-income firms to reduce their foreign direct investment by much more than they did during earlier financial crises, which were centered in developing countries. Tightening of credit sharply reduces domestic growth prospects Before the financial turmoil developed into a crisis of global proportions, developing countries were affected mainly by slowing demand in high-income countries through the export channel.
Otherwise there is a risk that governments lose the support of markets and taxpayers in their efforts to limit the extent of near-term disruptions. Financial markets The deterioration in financial conditions accelerated markedly in September 2008 T he protracted turmoil that has plagued global financial and credit markets since mid-2007 escalated in September 2008, with the sudden collapse of major financial institutions, first in the United States and subsequently in Europe. The crisis has spread rapidly to emerging markets and has raised fears of systemic risk to the international financial system.