Download Probability Theory: A Historical Sketch by L. E. Maistrov, Samuel Kotz PDF

By L. E. Maistrov, Samuel Kotz

ISBN-10: 0124657508

ISBN-13: 9780124657502

Chance thought: A old cartoon covers the likelihood idea, customarily axiomatization difficulties. The publication discusses the prehistory of the chance concept; the 1st degree within the improvement of chance thought; and the advance of chance conception to the center of the nineteenth century. The textual content additionally describes the chance thought within the moment 1/2 the nineteenth century; and the axiomatic foundations of the likelihood concept. Historians and mathematicians will locate the booklet valuable.

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Hence the probability of winning is greater than \. In other words, there is more than half a chance that the Knight would win each game and, when the game is repeated many times, he will almost certainly be the winner. Indeed, the more he played, the more he won. Chevalier de Mere was very happy and thought that he had found a sure method of striking it rich. However, the other players soon discovered that the game was not fair and they stopped playing with de Mere. It was time to think of some other rules and de Mere devised a new game.

It is Galileo's opinion that since smaller errors are more frequent than the larger ones, one should correct the smaller errors rather than the larger. Galileo repeatedly emphasizes that the probability of small deviations is greater than large ones. This problem was discussed in later years by many mathematicians. , one should disregard all those observations which result in values that are far beyond the majority of other observations. Following these remarks, Galileo discusses the problem of the signs of the errors appearing in the observations: First I ask you whether astronomers, in observing with their in­ struments and seeking, for example, the degree of elevation of the star above the horizon, may deviate from the truth by excess as well as by defect; that is, erroneously deduce sometimes that it is higher than is correct, and sometimes lower?

It was first published in Florence in 1718. The method proposed here by Galileo can quite easily be generalized for the case of a larger number of dice. He considers the following problem: Three dice are thrown simultaneous­ ly and the sum of the scores is noted. In this case although 9 and 12 can be made up in as many ways as 10 and 11, and therefore they should be considered as being of equal utility to these, yet it is known that long observation has made dice players consider 10 and 11 to be more advantageous than 9 and 12.

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