By Ken Pease, Andromachi Tseloni
ISBN-10: 3319031848
ISBN-13: 9783319031842
ISBN-10: 3319031856
ISBN-13: 9783319031859
This paintings offers transparent program of a brand new statistical modeling approach that may be used to acknowledge styles in victimization and forestall repeat victimization. The heritage of crime prevention innovations diversity from offender-based, to environment/situation-based, to victim-based. The authors of this paintings have came upon extra exact how you can expect and forestall victimization utilizing a statistical modeling, established round crime focus and sub-group profiling with reference to crime vulnerability degrees, to foretell components and contributors susceptible to crime. Following from this prediction, they suggest policing options to enhance crime prevention in accordance with those predictions. With a mixture of rapid activities and longer-term learn techniques, this paintings should be of curiosity to researchers and coverage makers in inquisitive about crime prevention, police reviews, victimology and statistical applications.
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Extra info for Using Modeling to Predict and Prevent Victimization
Example text
4 The above variables were the survivors from a larger set, those which were discarded (including the number of hours the house was empty during weekday and length of residence in the neighbourhood for household property crime; educational attainment and alcohol consumption for personal victimisation) proving not to be associated with victimisation incidence captured by the 2000 BCS. These variables together with BCS area type classification (inner city, urban or rural) consist the individual/household level explanatory variables of victimisation incidence (Osborn and Tseloni 1998).
This implies that males and females with otherwise similar individual, household, area and routine activities characteristics have on average comparable personal victimisation counts. In short, in this case gender doesn’t matter when other things are taken into account. The association between each independent variable and the mean victimisation count is given by the exponential of the presented coefficient. 98. 024) from the table and it is negative with regards to the logarithm of personal crimes or diminishing with regards to their mean count.
An incident is classified in the BCS as the most serious crime type that occurred during its course (Hales et al. 2000, Appendix G). Incidents can of course contain more than one crime type as components, as for example threats to kill and assault. Victims could report up to five single or series incidents during 1999 (Kershaw et al. 2000). Series in the BCS refer to a set of repetitive events of the same crime type which occur under similar circumstances and possibly by the same offenders. They are also truncated at five events per Victim Form (Hales et al.